{"id":33159,"date":"2024-10-31T13:48:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T17:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/?p=33159"},"modified":"2024-10-31T13:50:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T17:50:00","slug":"the-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/?p=33159","title":{"rendered":"The Odds"},"content":{"rendered":"

The election odds<\/a> cited by Mr. Trump came from a crypto-powered gambling website called Polymarket. Using digital currencies, gamblers on Polymarket have wagered more than $100 million on the outcome of the presidential race, turning the site into the internet betting phenomenon of the 2024 election.<\/p>\n

Elon Musk has promoted Polymarket\u2019s odds on X, calling them \u201cmore accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.\u201d CNN and other news media organizations have featured the projections in their election coverage. And as the market has swung heavily in Mr. Trump\u2019s favor, he has relentlessly publicized the site\u2019s numbers, seeking to create a sense of inevitability about the election\u2019s outcome.<\/p>\n

\u201cA gambling poll, as they call it,\u201d Mr. Trump said recently of Polymarket. \u201cI don\u2019t know what the hell it means, but it means that we\u2019re doing pretty well.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Mr. Trump\u2019s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory<\/strong>, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person<\/strong>, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person\u2019s identity.<\/p>\n

...<\/p>\n

For much of the fall, Polymarket\u2019s odds suggested that Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris were locked in a tight race, mirroring the polls. Then the odds diverged substantially this month, after the four accounts placed large bets on the former president.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On Oct. 11, Mr. Trump posted a screenshot of Polymarket that showed he had a 55.5 percent chance of winning the election. On Monday, he posted a new screenshot showing that his chances had increased to 64 percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The election odds cited by Mr. Trump came from a crypto-powered gambling website called Polymarket. Using digital currencies, gamblers on Polymarket have wagered more than $100 million on the outcome of the presidential race, turning the site into the internet betting phenomenon of the 2024 election. Elon Musk has promoted Polymarket\u2019s odds on X, calling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-election"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33159"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33163,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33159\/revisions\/33163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok-cleek.com\/blogs\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}