Dear Horse Race Addicts

At this point (aka “still more than two years from the election”), nobody knows anything about the state of the 2014 Presidential election.

Even as late as June 2006 Obama wasn’t even polling above zero. He didn’t even make the list. Everyone knew the race was going to be Hillary Clinton v Rudy Giuliani – and Giuliani was being called “The American Churchill“. In Feb 2006, the idea that Obama would win the nomination, let alone the election, was absurd.

How’d it work out, pundits? All your predictions were wildly inaccurate? Yes, they were.

Is there a lesson to be learned here? Yes, there is.