Category Archives: Election

Fear Of a Brown Planet

In short, our analysis indicates that Donald Trump successfully leveraged existing resentment towards African Americans in combination with emerging fears of increased racial diversity in America to reshape the presidential electorate, strongly attracting nativists towards Trump and pushing some more affluent and highly educated people with more cosmopolitan views to support Hillary Clinton. Racial identity and attitudes have further displaced class as the central battleground of American politics.

Deplorable.

Where Have You Been, Rubin?

Jennifer Rubin:

Rep. Will Hurd (R-Tex.), who appeared Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” made an interesting observation. “It’s going to go down in the history of Mother Russia as the greatest covert action campaign, not because President Trump won,” he said. “There was no manipulation of the vote-tallying machines. It’s going to go down as the greatest covert action because it drove a — created a wedge, whether real or perceived, between the White House, the intelligence community, and the American public.” Well, it will also go down as the greatest covert action in history because Russia sought to manipulate the outcome of our election and provided assistance to the Trump campaign. Moreover, Vladimir Putin has convinced a significant chunk of the American electorate that Trump is “illegitimate.” (One poll shows 57 percent of young voters between 18 and 30 consider him “illegitimate.”) And worse, it’s convinced many Americans that our president’s word cannot be trusted.

Anyone who needed this to be convinced that Trump’s word cannot be trusted hasn’t heard a fucking thing he’s said since he started running for the role of President. Yes, of course Trump lied about this. He lies about everything, constantly and needlessly. Welcome to 2015.

Remembering The October Surprise

From the Just In Case You Forgot file:

Most decisively, there was a sudden change in the net sentiment results that followed immediately after FBI Director James Comey released his Oct. 28 letter to Congress about a renewed investigation of Clinton emails.

And then the murders began? Well, in a way, sure…

Immediately afterwards, there was a 17-point drop in net sentiment for Clinton, and an 11-point rise for Trump, enough for the two candidates to switch places in the rankings, with Clinton in more negative territory than Trump. At a time when opinion polling showed perhaps a 2-point decline in the margin for Clinton, this conversation data suggests a 28-point change in the word of mouth “standings.” The change in word of mouth favorability metric was stunning, and much greater than the traditional opinion polling revealed.

HuffPo.

Trumped

The national Park Service has released their pictures of Trump’s inauguration : the pix that showed his sparse crowds. And, they’re timestamped, so you can see for yourself that the pix in question were not taken early in the morning or late in the afternoon. They were all taken around noon.

NPS. If you want to look, get yourself a fast internet connection because these file are big. You’ll want 2017, Batch 4.

ANALYSIS: Who Voted in 2016 & Who Didn’t – Democracy North Carolina

NC election turnout post-mortem:

At the top of the list: Three out of four Republican women (76%) participated in the election, a record for that group. Republican men also had a strong showing, with a turnout rate of 75%, followed by Democratic women, particularly African-American Democratic women (72%).

By contrast, Democratic men lagged 10 points behind Republican men, and more than one third of the voters who are not affiliated with any party didn’t bother to cast a ballot. In fact, the number of registered unaffiliated voters who didn’t vote (763,000) exceeded the number of Republican men who did (756,000).

Nearly half the registered voters in the 18-25 age group also did not vote. Their 53% turnout rate fell below the 60% achieved in 2008 and 55% level in 2012. On the other hand, a record 78% of registered voters over age 65 showed up; as a group, they cast over 1 million ballots for the first time, thanks to aging Baby Boomers.

Which is why I rolled my eyes every time some Clinton-hating leftier-than-thou started yammering about how the youth were the future, the vanguard of the revolution, and therefore deserved to have ‘their’ candidate (Sanders) win. Want to win? Vote.

Consequences

Maybe 2017 will be the year Americans finally realize that yes : there is a difference between Democrats and Republicans; and that your vote actually does matter.

But probably not.

Duty Calls

This is who people think should be running the country.

The President-elect is unable to stay out of Twitter spats with children on the internet. This is how he spends his time – hours and hours of arguing with trolls.

I suppose it’s only a matter of time before he claims his new title means he automatically wins whatever argument he’s in that night. “Arguing with POTUS? Sad. Loser.”

(Apologies to XKCD)

Patting Myself On The Back

Drum: Final Polls Show Clinton With Strong Lead

cleek 9 days ago
since we still don’t elect President by national vote: no, i don’t feel better. and President Gore wishes people would quit pretending national polls matter one bit.

Drum: Weekly Pol Update Slight Tightening But Clinton Still Comfortably Ahead

cleek • 12 days ago
this just in : President Gore wants everyone to remember that President is still not elected via national popular vote.

On unskewing 538:

cleek … 14 days ago
an X point lead in a national poll is meaningless since we don’t elect President with a national vote.

all that matters are the individual state polls.

On the meaning of a single national poll:

cleek … 15 days ago
presidents are not elected by national vote. the only polls that matter are polls of individual states.

Drum: Poll Tightening? Meh

cleek 16 days ago
there is still no national vote for President.

On how much national polls matter:

cleek 2 months ago
polls don’t actually matter at all.

all that matters are the results of the 50 state races.