Category Archives: Election

Bank Shot

Here’s some fresh new bullshit (which John McCain has apparently been huffing) that attempts to take the Russia hacking of our election and blame/implicate/smear Democrats for/in/with it!

However it is time to talk about the obvious:

  1. Hillary in her emails and the DNC emails thought that Trump was the weakest candidate
  2. Obama was supporting Hillary where he could.
  3. If Russia was hacking the Primaries and Obama was deciding to not talk about that then it would help Trump which in their view would help Hillary.

So, the ‘thinking’ goes: Obama the dastardly wizard knew the sneaky Russians were diddling in the primaries in order to help Trump but rather than stop it (with magic?), he let it continue! Why? Because everybody thought Trump would be Clinton’s easiest opponent in the general. Thus, because of this scheming, the Democrats are actually to blame for continued Russian meddling, and for Trump’s win!

I applaud the creativity.

Getting There

MOSCOW — Shifting from his previous blanket denials, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said on Thursday that “patriotically minded” private Russian hackers could have been involved in cyberattacks last year to help the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump.

While Mr. Putin continued to deny any state role, his comments to reporters in St. Petersburg were a departure from the Kremlin’s previous position: that Russia had played no role whatsoever in the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and that, after Mr. Trump’s victory, the country had become the victim of anti-Russia hysteria among crestfallen Democrats.

“Cultural Anxiety”

Twas the deplorables wot dunnit.

White Americans carried Donald Trump to the White House. He won college-educated white voters by a four-point margin over Hillary Clinton, according to exit polls. But his real victory was among members of the white working class: Twice as many of these voters cast their ballots for the president as for Clinton.

In the wake of Trump’s surprise win, some journalists, scholars, and political strategists argued that economic anxiety drove these Americans to Trump. But new analysis of post-election survey data conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found something different: Evidence suggests financially troubled voters in the white working class actually preferred Clinton over Trump. Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.

How our democracy was hijacked

Via Girl From The North Country, a thoroughly distressing article about the intersection of big data, shadowy companies and mainstream politics…

Facebook was the source of the psychological insights that enabled Cambridge Analytica to target individuals. It was also the mechanism that enabled them to be delivered on a large scale.

The company also (perfectly legally) bought consumer datasets – on everything from magazine subscriptions to airline travel – and uniquely it appended these with the psych data to voter files. It matched all this information to people’s addresses, their phone numbers and often their email addresses. “The goal is to capture every single aspect of every voter’s information environment,” said David. “And the personality data enabled Cambridge Analytica to craft individual messages.”

Finding “persuadable” voters is key for any campaign and with its treasure trove of data, Cambridge Analytica could target people high in neuroticism, for example, with images of immigrants “swamping” the country. The key is finding emotional triggers for each individual voter.

Cambridge Analytica worked on campaigns in several key states for a Republican political action committee. Its key objective, according to a memo the Observer has seen, was “voter disengagement” and “to persuade Democrat voters to stay at home”: a profoundly disquieting tactic. It has previously been claimed that suppression tactics were used in the campaign, but this document provides the first actual evidence.

Fear Of a Brown Planet

In short, our analysis indicates that Donald Trump successfully leveraged existing resentment towards African Americans in combination with emerging fears of increased racial diversity in America to reshape the presidential electorate, strongly attracting nativists towards Trump and pushing some more affluent and highly educated people with more cosmopolitan views to support Hillary Clinton. Racial identity and attitudes have further displaced class as the central battleground of American politics.

Deplorable.

Where Have You Been, Rubin?

Jennifer Rubin:

Rep. Will Hurd (R-Tex.), who appeared Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” made an interesting observation. “It’s going to go down in the history of Mother Russia as the greatest covert action campaign, not because President Trump won,” he said. “There was no manipulation of the vote-tallying machines. It’s going to go down as the greatest covert action because it drove a — created a wedge, whether real or perceived, between the White House, the intelligence community, and the American public.” Well, it will also go down as the greatest covert action in history because Russia sought to manipulate the outcome of our election and provided assistance to the Trump campaign. Moreover, Vladimir Putin has convinced a significant chunk of the American electorate that Trump is “illegitimate.” (One poll shows 57 percent of young voters between 18 and 30 consider him “illegitimate.”) And worse, it’s convinced many Americans that our president’s word cannot be trusted.

Anyone who needed this to be convinced that Trump’s word cannot be trusted hasn’t heard a fucking thing he’s said since he started running for the role of President. Yes, of course Trump lied about this. He lies about everything, constantly and needlessly. Welcome to 2015.

Remembering The October Surprise

From the Just In Case You Forgot file:

Most decisively, there was a sudden change in the net sentiment results that followed immediately after FBI Director James Comey released his Oct. 28 letter to Congress about a renewed investigation of Clinton emails.

And then the murders began? Well, in a way, sure…

Immediately afterwards, there was a 17-point drop in net sentiment for Clinton, and an 11-point rise for Trump, enough for the two candidates to switch places in the rankings, with Clinton in more negative territory than Trump. At a time when opinion polling showed perhaps a 2-point decline in the margin for Clinton, this conversation data suggests a 28-point change in the word of mouth “standings.” The change in word of mouth favorability metric was stunning, and much greater than the traditional opinion polling revealed.

HuffPo.

Trumped

The national Park Service has released their pictures of Trump’s inauguration : the pix that showed his sparse crowds. And, they’re timestamped, so you can see for yourself that the pix in question were not taken early in the morning or late in the afternoon. They were all taken around noon.

NPS. If you want to look, get yourself a fast internet connection because these file are big. You’ll want 2017, Batch 4.

ANALYSIS: Who Voted in 2016 & Who Didn’t – Democracy North Carolina

NC election turnout post-mortem:

At the top of the list: Three out of four Republican women (76%) participated in the election, a record for that group. Republican men also had a strong showing, with a turnout rate of 75%, followed by Democratic women, particularly African-American Democratic women (72%).

By contrast, Democratic men lagged 10 points behind Republican men, and more than one third of the voters who are not affiliated with any party didn’t bother to cast a ballot. In fact, the number of registered unaffiliated voters who didn’t vote (763,000) exceeded the number of Republican men who did (756,000).

Nearly half the registered voters in the 18-25 age group also did not vote. Their 53% turnout rate fell below the 60% achieved in 2008 and 55% level in 2012. On the other hand, a record 78% of registered voters over age 65 showed up; as a group, they cast over 1 million ballots for the first time, thanks to aging Baby Boomers.

Which is why I rolled my eyes every time some Clinton-hating leftier-than-thou started yammering about how the youth were the future, the vanguard of the revolution, and therefore deserved to have ‘their’ candidate (Sanders) win. Want to win? Vote.